Tradable Patterns

Trading liquid global markets

Silver (SI) Rally Attempts Warns of Trend Reversal

Silver (CME SI Dec14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

SI has moved up to the top of my list today, given its strong warnings to the upside as made by the spikes up (albeit shortlived) these last 2 days. In the Asian session, it has currently retraced a fair amount of yesterday’s surge, but forming a higher low versus the lows over the last few days, providing a conservative long entry opportunity. I am long at 19.68 after having entered too early on the way down yesterday while out at a CFA networking event, but am comfortable holding targeting the 19.9-20 range in the next session or so.

Silver (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

Arabica Coffee (ICE KC Dec14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

KC appeared late in yesterday’s session, close to completing its consolidation of its surge earlier in the week. The weekly, daily and 4hr and hourly RSI, Stochastics and MACD mostly point higher now, providing a high probability long setup. I continue to favour long entry in the 1.97-1.98 range.

Arabica Coffee (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

VIX (CFE VIX Sep14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

The VIX had a warm up spike yesterday, which I profited on. I am long at 14 as of yesterday when I caught it on the way down prematurely. I will hold for another push up towards the 14.5-15 range. The weekly and daily RSI, Stochastics and MACD continue coiling for a pending rally.

VIX (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

Nasdaq100 (CME NQ Sep14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

The NQ’s trading sideways in a new channel as seen in my 4hr chart, while the daily Dojis increasingly serve as a warning to those who are still going long at this point. After having closed a short for a bit of profit on yesterday’s European morning session drop, I re-entered my short prematurely at 4059.90 but am now comfortable holding given the daily RSI and MACD are both now flattening.

Nasdaq100 (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

S&P500 (CME ES Sep14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

The ES dipped briefly like the NQ yesterday, and quickly bounced off of the channel support drawn earlier on the 4hr chart. I closed a short on the drop and profited a bit, but re-entered my short prematurely at 1990.46. I am comfortable holding this one.

S&P500 (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

Netflix (NFLX) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

NFLX’s had a bit of a bounce yesterday, and now sits around where it broke beneath the uptrend support line shown in the 4hr chart. I did not end up shorting it yesterday in the 475-480 range as I ended up favouring shorts on the ES and NQ.

Netflix (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

Corn (CME ZC Dec14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

ZC rallied nicely yesterday off of a triple bottom (seen on the 4hr chart). Although its weekly RSI, Stochastics and daily Stochastics point slightly down, the other daily indicators are becoming increasingly bullish.

Corn (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

Wheat (CME ZW Sep14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

Given yesterday’s alignment on bullish signals across ZW’s weekly, daily and 4hr charts, the rally yesterday should not have come as a surprise. It is now a bit overextended and close to channel resistance (as seen in the daily chart), and therefore lower down on today’s trade idea rankings.

Wheat (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

Gold (CME GC Dec14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

The story of GC being mixed in its chart signals hasn’t changed much from yesterday. I’ll remain flat GC today favouring the above trade ideas.

Gold (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

Cotton (ICE CT Dec14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

CT continued seeing profittaking after having hit resistance as seen by the horizontal line drawn on the daily chart. I will wait for this one to pullback before entertaining longs in the .65 to .655 range.

Cotton (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

Tesla (TSLA) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

TSLA continues being a bit further off than NFLX in putting in a double top. Its daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and NACD are indeed tiring, which should continue to cautioun potential longs. I’ll need to see the weekly RSI, Stochastics and MACD flattening on the weekly chart before I consider shorting TSLA.

Tesla (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

Natural Gas (CME NG Oct14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

After NG’s rally this past week, it now sits near channel resistance as seen in the daily chart. I will wait for it to soften towards the channel support before entertaining going long. Note the change in contract month to the Oct given the rollover taking place.

Natural Gas (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

BUXL (Eurex GBX Sep14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

The GBX is closer to being on my radar as it approaches its all-time April 2012 high. Watch in the next few sessions for its weekly MACD to stop rising and begin falling, and for its weekly RSI and Stochastics to begin rolling over.

Buxl (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

Note the daily reshuffling of the charts. As mentioned, they’re ordered by how favourable the risk:reward of the trade idea appears based on my analysis for each day.

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