Tradable Patterns

Trading liquid global markets

Tight Trading Range Expected with US Labour Day

Today’s session will be relatively subdued with the US Labour Day holiday trading hours in effect.

  • CME 2014 Holiday Trading Hours
  • ICE markets are entirely closed today. ICE 2014 Holidays
  • Silver (CME SI Dec14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

    SI continued selling off on profittaking Friday following its surge Thursday, and is increasingly well positioned for a follow through on last week’s rally attempts. I continue to be long at 19.68, and am comfortable holding targeting the 19.9-20 range for the next rally.

    Silver (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

    Arabica Coffee (ICE KC Dec14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

    KC is in the late stages of completing its pennant as seen in the 4hr chart. The hourly chart provides a view of a wedge pattern within the pennant. Zooming out into the daily chart, you can see that KC’s in the middle of an upward sloping channel. The weekly, daily and 4hr and hourly RSI, Stochastics and MACD mostly point higher now, providing a high probability long setup. I am eyeing long entry in the 1.99-2.00 range.

    Arabica Coffee (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

    Cotton (ICE CT Dec14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

    After the Wednesday-Thursday retrace of CT’s recent rally, it worked off its near-term overbought conditions and began resuming its rally late in Friday’s session. It continues to look attractive for a continued bounce to the resistance line seen in the daily chart, with its weekly, daily, 4hr and hourly RSI, Stochastics and MACD mostly pointing higher.

    Cotton (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

    Corn (CME ZC Dec14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

    ZC successfully tested late in Friday’s session, another triple bottom pattern (albeit across a much shorter 4hr chart timeframe compared to the triple bottom recently tested spanning a few months). Caution to longs remains as the daily Stochastics and MACD point somewhat down.

    Corn (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

    Wheat (CME ZW Sep14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

    Friday’s late session selloff on ZW positions it in the middle of a channel as seen in the daily chart, making it a tricky play now. The 4hr MACD is crossing negatively, so I’ll be sitting this one out today.

    Wheat (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

    VIX (CFE VIX Sep14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

    The VIX’s weekly and daily RSI, Stochastics and MACD continue coiling for a pending rally. I am long at 14 and targeting the 14.5-15 range on the next rally.

    VIX (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

    Nasdaq100 (CME NQ Sep14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

    The NQ’s trading sideways in a new channel as seen in my 4hr chart, while the daily Dojis increasingly serve as a warning to those who are still going long at this point. I continue holding my short at 4059.90 and am comfortable waiting for the daily RSI and MACD to roll over.

    Nasdaq100 (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

    S&P500 (CME ES Sep14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

    The ES is in the middle of a channel as seen in my 4hr chart, and should be fairly limited in further upside given the toppish daily Stochastics. I am comfortable holding my short at 1990.46.

    S&P500 (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

    Netflix (NFLX) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

    NFLX continues looking vulnerable to downside as it remains close to where it broke beneath the uptrend support line shown in the 4hr chart. Note how the daily MACD is now close to a negative crossover, at which point it would form a lower high versus its high in July.

    Netflix (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

    Gold (CME GC Dec14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

    The story of GC being mixed in its chart signals hasn’t changed much in recent sessions. It sits in the middle of a downward sloping channel in the daily chart, and in the 4hr chart, it’s right near another channel’s support. There’s a decent likelihood of a break below the 4hr chart’s channel support given the 4hr MACD appears to want to roll over.

    Gold (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

    Tesla (TSLA) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

    TSLA continues being a bit further off than NFLX in putting in a double top. Its daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and NACD are mostly tiring, which should continue to caution potential longs. I’ll need to see the daily RSI and Stochastics turning down (and preferably the weekly RSI, Stochastics and MACD flattening) before I consider shorting TSLA.

    Tesla (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

    Natural Gas (CME NG Oct14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

    After NG’s rally last week, it sits near channel resistance as seen in the daily chart. The 4hr and hourly RSI, Stochastics and MACD are mostly rolling over.

    Natural Gas (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

    BUXL (Eurex GBX Sep14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

    The GBX is almost at its all-time April 2012 high. Wait in the next few sessions for its weekly MACD histogram to stop rising and begin falling, and for its weekly RSI and Stochastics to begin rolling over.

    Buxl (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

    Note the daily reshuffling of the charts. As mentioned, they’re ordered by how favourable the risk:reward of the trade idea appears based on my analysis for each day.

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