Tradable Patterns

Trading liquid global markets

Arabica Coffee (KC) Spikes 4.8%

Arabica Coffee (ICE KC Dec14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

Yesterday’s standout performance from KC should lay to rest any doubt that the uptrend is continuing. The weekly and daily RSI, Stochastics and MACD all point higher. As those who’ve followed my thoughts on KC will know, the missing ingredient late last week to Monday to KC rallying was the daily MACD being pointed slightly down. In the chart below, you can see how new support and resistance lines have been drawn on the 4hr and hourly charts, showing where I expect profittaking today after yesterday’s monster near 5% move. I will look for a short entry of 2 lots sometime likely before the middle of today’s session, targeting ascending wedge support (or a 38.2% retrace of yesterday’s rally). Once profittaking subsides, I will look to go long 2 lots expecting a bounce to take over for the balance of the session.

Coffee (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

Silver (CME SI Dec14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

SI made a serious attempt to break its downtrend yesterday, with an intraday spike to a higher high versus last week’s high. Today’s open also appeared to form a higher low than the lows during this past week. Rather bullishly in the near-term, the daily MACD appears to be finally making a long anticipated positive crossover. I have a long opening buy limit at 19.4 and 19.42. Note that I’m now profiling the December contract as the rollover from September is now progressing.

Silver (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

VIX (CFE VIX Sep14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

The VIX continues its test since Aug 18 of the July low. With the MACD green line beginning to flatten, and the daily Stochastics oversold, VIX continues to be an interesting buy in the 13.25-13.45 range. I was long briefly yesterday, before closing for a slight loss and reallocating capital towards trading SI and KC. As my focus today will be continue to be on trading SI and KC, I will likely remain flat the VIX.

VIX (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

S&P500 (CME ES Sep14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

The ES followed in the footsteps of the underlying spot index yesterday crossing the 2k level intraday. It has since seen some selling pressure due to a bit of profittaking. Importantly, it has edged just outside of ascending wedge support, which often presages trend reversal. As the daily MACD is still pointing up, I’m going to wait patiently for it to flatten before going short. I was short briefly yesterday, before closing at a slight loss and reallocating capital towards trading SI and KC.

S&P500 (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

Nasdaq100 (CME NQ Sep14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

Like the ES, the NQ’s looking increasingly vulnerable to near-term profittaking, sitting at channel support. With its relative strength over ES in the last few weeks, it has not experienced a single down day in 9. As with ES, I will wait for the daily MACD to flatten before initiating shorts. I was short briefly yesterday, before closing at a slight loss and reallocating capital towards trading SI and KC.

Nasdaq100 (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

Wheat (CME ZW Sep14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

ZW had a dip early in the US session, before recovering most intraday losses. ZW as seen in the 4hr chart has made higher lows and higher highs in the last two weeks. Although ZW is increasingly attractive as a long following yesterday’s successful test of the rising support line seen in my daily and 4hr chart, I’ll remain flat ZW for now as I’ll be away from the computer the first half of the European session, and will be focusing on trading KC and SI once I’m back.

Wheat (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

Corn (CME ZC Dec14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

Like ZW, ZC had a bit of a dip yesterday and successfully tested a support line as seen in the 4hr chart. The successful bounce marks a triple bottom and continues to makes ZC an attractive long. For the same reasons mentioned for ZW though, I will remain flat ZC today. Although initially intending yesterday to go long at 366, I canceled the buy limit as it appeared ZC wanted to go lower intraday.

Corn (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

Gold (CME GC Dec14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

I’m less drawn to GC today as it continues to have a bit of gap between its current level and triangle support as seen in the weekly chart. One can see though from the daily chart that GC sit near downward channel support, and offers decent near-term upside towards channel resistance. Importantly, on the 4hr chart, a higher high and higher low can also be observed. Combined with GC’s daily MACD green line flattening, GC is now an attractive long candidate. I will hold off though on taking a position as my focus today will be on trading SI and KC.

Gold (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

Cotton (ICE CT Dec14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

After a good chunk of CT’s recent rally, I am not about to chase it, as it can now be seen hitting resistance as seen by the horizontal line drawn on the daily chart. I will wait for this one to pullback before entertaining longs in the .65 to .655 range.

Cotton (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

Netflix (NFLX) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

NFLX is showing early signs of teetering, as its daily Stochastics is now turning down. Because its daily MACD still slopes up, I will leave this in the background for now, watching it periodically for confirmation of a double top.

Netflix (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

Tesla (TSLA) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

TSLA yesterday displayed similar behavior to NFLX, weakening slightly. The daily RSI, Stochastics and MACD all appear to be tiring. The main reason my TSLA trade idea isn’t positioned higher in today’s rankings is due to the weekly MACD still pointing up.

Tesla (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

Natural Gas (CME NG Sep14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

After NG’s rally post last Thursday’s inventory figures, it now appears a bit winded, and lacks the conviction to go much higher ahead of this Thursday’s numbers. I will remain flat today.

Natural Gas (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

BUXL (Eurex GBX Sep14) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

The GBX continues sitting off my radar until it hits its all-time April 2012 high. I will then watch for its weekly MACD to stop rising and begin falling, and for its weekly RSI and Stochastics to begin rolling over.

Buxl (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

Note the daily reshuffling of the charts. As mentioned, they’re ordered by how favourable the risk:reward of the trade idea appears based on my analysis for each day.

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