Wheat (CME ZW Sep14) moved up nicely during most of Friday’s session, until slamming down in the final 5min of trading to end more or less where it started on the day. Given its gains since the July bottoms, it’s appearing a bit tired on the daily, 4hr and hourly Stochastics and MACD. I am currently long 1 lot at 551.55. With the mixed signals, I’ll likely not add to my 1 lot and will look to exit today around 555-560.
Corn (CME ZC Dec14) inched up for much of Friday, and opened the Asian session under a bit of pressure. As the daily, 4hr and hourly Stochastics are looking rather tired, with MACD on the same timeframes not much better, I’m going to be cautious in the European and US session today. I am currently long 1 lot at 368.8 and will look to exit in the 373-375 range. ZC’s weekly RSI, Stochastics and MACD continue pointing higher.
Cotton (ICE CT Dec14) appeared to be resuming its rally from last Wed on Friday, but is now tiring in the Asian session. With the weekly MACD green line flattening, and daily MACD still sloping steadily upwards, I will continue trying to buy on meaningful pullbacks. With the 4hr and hourly Stochastics and MACD looking a bit overextended, I will look to enter longs towards the start of the US session hopefully in the .65-.653 range.
Tesla (TSLA) rallied a bit Friday, finding support on the 4hr EMA. The 4hr MACD and Stochastics are still pointing higher, as is the weekly MACD. Although the daily Stochastics still slopes down, it is trying to turn higher as well. I am still short 100 shares (CFD) at 255, and will look to close this position today as I may have been premature on the double top call made last week.
Arabica Coffee (ICE KC Dec14) traded slightly higher during the first half of Friday’s session, then reversed and closed almost a percent lower. Today, I will look to buy in the 1.84-1.87 range and sell in the 1.88-1.91 range. I will remain fairly cautious with tight stops though given the the daily downward sloping MACD deepening in its negative histogram, as well as a downward sloping 4hr Stochastics.
Natural Gas (CME NG Sep14) continues looking increasingly interesting on the long side. I will try to go long in the 3.82 to 3.84 range, and close between 3.87 and 3.9 intraday.
Nasdaq100 (CME NQ Sep14) and S&P500 (CME ES Sep14) have proved me wrong, as they continue grinding higher. I’m flat now and will remain so as the weekly and daily MACD remain sloping higher.
I am flat the VIX (CFE VIX Sep14) as well for the same reasons as being flat the NQ and ES.
With Jackson Hole in the rearview mirror, Gold (CME GC Dec14) may be close to trying to form an interim bottom. With its weekly Stochastics and daily MACD still pointing down, I will remain flat GC today.
Like GC, Silver (CME SI Sep14) is close to an interim bottom as seen by the flattish daily MACD and RSI, and rising daily MACD histogram. I’ll likely wait for a postive MACD crossover on the daily chart before I begin going long SI intraday.
Netflix (NFLX) proved me wrong Friday with its push to a new all-time high. I prematurely described the move towards its previous high as a double top, and should have held off on shorting until seeing a failed re-test of the prior high. I will likely exit my short today close to current levels.
The BUXL (Eurex GBX Sep14) is going to be a bit off my radar until it hits its all-time April 2012 high. I will then watch for its weekly MACD to stop rising and begin falling, and for its weekly RSI and Stochastics to begin rolling over.
Note the daily reshuffling of the charts below. As mentioned, they’re ordered by how favourable the risk:reward of the trade idea appears based on my analysis for each day.