Wheat (CME ZW Sep14) had a solid performance yesterday, and appears ready to resume its rally off the July bottom. The MACD and Stochastics look bullish across the weekly, daily, 4hr and hourly timeframes now. Amongst all the commodities I’ve been watching, ZW is the closest to seeing a weekly MACD positive crossover. I am currently flat after having traded in and out of ZW yesterday, and will look to re-enter 2-3 lots of longs in the 540 to 545 range.
Corn (CME ZC Dec14)’s gains yesterday were less pronounced than ZW’s, but ZC nevertheless is now well positioned for a resumption of its rally off the July bottom. I am long a lot at 368.05, and will look to adding 2 lots in the 367-369 range. ZC’s weekly, daily and 4hr Stochastics and MACD are all pointing higher.
Cotton (ICE CT Dec14) pulled back yesterday as expected on profittaking, and is now within the .655-.66 range I had yesterday targeted for my long entry. The 4hr and hourly MACD are still pointing down however, as are the daily and 4hr Stochastics, and as a result, I will lower my target long entry range to .65-.653, which straddles the 50% retrace of Wednesday’s rally.
Tesla (TSLA) is sitting slightly below where I went short 100 shares (CFD) at 255. The weekly and daily RSI, Stochastics and MACD all point down, with the weekly MACD being an exception as it still slopes upwards. The 4hr and hourly Stochastics and MACD though appear to want to go higher early in today’s session. As mentioned yesterday, a double top can be seen forming between the Monday high and the all-time high made in February of this year. Despite Jackson Hole which runs until Saturday, I am comfortable holding for an initial target around 250. My expectation is for momentum names like TSLA to lead the Nasdaq100 (CME NQ Sep14) and S&P500 (CME ES Sep14) by a few days.
Arabica Coffee (ICE KC Dec14) closed yesterday roughly in the middle of an increasingly tight recent trading range. I expect the volatility to spike to the upside in the next few sessions, and will continue looking to buy on dips towards support in the 1.84-1.86 range and sell in the 1.88-1.9 range (by noon EST). The daily downward sloping MACD is farily shallow in its negative histogram so far, and should be reversing higher in the next day or so as the daily Stochastics has already turned up.
Nasdaq100 (CME NQ Sep14) and S&P500 (CME ES Sep14) continue hugging along the ascending wedge/upward channel resistance line I’ve drawn for the two in their charts below. I mistakenly went short 1 lot of NQ at 4039.9 and 3 lots of ES at 1980.04 yesterday, and should have just sat these trades out as NQ and ES continue inching up leading to the results of Jackson Hole. ES has a decent chance of hitting the key 2k level leading up to or immediately following Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole today. As better trade setups exist with the markets profiled above, I will look to swap out of my NQ and ES shorts today in favour of CT, ZW, ZC and KC longs.
I went long the VIX (CFE VIX Sep14) yesterday at 13.6 and may exit this long today depending on how the ES and NQ behave towards the New York open.
Natural Gas (CME NG Sep14) managed to rebound off of its intraday post inventory numbers low, and is now unlikely to further test its July low. As the July low held Monday, and with the weekly MACD green line flattening, and weekly Stochastics and daily MACD pointing up, my previously cautious stance on NG has lifted, and I will look to go long in the 3.8 to 3.83 range.
Netflix (NFLX) dipped intraday yesterday close to my breakeven of 465 where I had shorted 100 shares (CFD). I was tempted to close and re-enter the short higher, but am comfortable holding this short as the daily Stochastics is now rolling over, as is the 4h Stochastics and MACD.
Gold (CME GC Dec14) is trying to make an interim bottom now as seen by its 4hr Stochastics and MACD. Its weekly Stochastics and daily MACD continue pointing down though. I will likely not trade GC until after Jackson Hole.
Silver (CME SI Sep14) is close to an interim bottom as its daily MACD and RSI begin rising. The daily MACD is also about to make a positive crossover. That being said, with the still bearish weekly Stochastics and MACD, I will hold off on trading SI on the long side until post Jackson Hole.
The BUXL (Eurex GBX Sep14) is going to be a bit off my radar until it hits its all-time April 2012 high. I will then watch for its weekly MACD to stop rising and begin falling, and for its weekly RSI and Stochastics to begin rolling over.
Note the daily reshuffling of the charts below. As mentioned, they’re ordered by how favourable the risk:reward of the trade idea appears based on my analysis for each day.