Tesla (TSLA) fell for its fourth day yesterday, creating a bearish profile on its daily chart. Most importantly, a double top can be seen forming between the Monday high and the all-time high made in February of this year. The daily RSI, Stochastics and MACD now all appear to be rolling over. Given the steady selling over the last few days, TSLA could resume today, its near-term bounce which it began yesterday. I went short 100 shares yesterday at 254.76, and am comfortable holding for an initial target around 250.
Cotton (ICE CT Dec14) edged up higher yesterday, and after a few intraday trades at slight profits, I’m sitting on 3 lots long at an average entry of .6406. I’ll likely continue exiting longs around .643-.645 and re-entering in the .64-.641 range.
Corn (CME ZC Dec14) rallied a bit yesterday initially, only to sell off late in the session. I exited my 3 longs during the rally for a small profit, and will try buying 2-3 lots in the 365-367 range today and selling around 370-375. Slight caution is in order for longs near-term as the daily Stochastics is pointing down.
Arabica Coffee (ICE KC Dec14) was under strong pressure yesterday to the downside, as the daily downward sloping MACD finally exerted itself. The daily Stochastics and RSI, along with the 4hr/hourly RSI, Stochastics and MACD are now also pointing down, suggesting a weak start to today’s session. I will look to buy around 1.83-1.85 mid session today on the expectation that by then, a near-term floor will have been found. Initial upside intraday targets (for late in the session) will be 1.86-1.88. I had provided analysis on the September contract in previous weeks. Make sure you’re looking at the December contract now that the contract rollover is in progress.
Wheat (CME ZW Sep14) didn’t end up falling to the 535 level yesterday that I was targeting, so I ended up remaining flat. The trade signals are a bit bearish on the daily Stochastics, 4hr Stochastics and Hourly MACD, so I’m going to sit this one out likely for the balance of today’s session.
S&P500 (CME ES Sep14) and Nasdaq100 (CME NQ Sep14) are back to exhibiting near-term toppish conditions. Both are hugging an upward channel/wedge resistance lines, and their 4hr RSI, MACD and Stochastics are rolling over. Although the NQ has broken above the key round 4k figure, ES has yet to reclaim its July high, let alone reach the 2k target figure. Although the weekly and daily MACD and Stochastics are pointing up, I decided to go short 1 lot yesterday at 1970.96 for a near-term pullback based on the 4hr and hourly signals. I ended up being early on this one, and will remain on the sidelines with NQ and VIX (CFE VIX Sep14) for now.
Gold (CME GC Dec14) is just a hair beneath the 1300 round figure level. Its 4hr and hourly MACD and Stochastics are both pointing higher, with its daily Stochastics and MACD fairly neutral. I will remain flat GC for now as its weekly Stochastics and RSI are pointing a bit down, and will likely not trade GC again until after Jackson Hole.
Silver (CME SI Sep14) took a hit yesterday, and fortunately I had exited my long at 19.64 for a slight gain right before the drop. Although SI’s 4hr and hourly MACD and Stochastics suggest a near-term bottom, I’m going to focus on the markets above for now. I will look to trade SI on the long side post Jackson Hole.
Netflix (NFLX) is just a session or so away from making an all-time high. I prematurely went short 100 shares yesterday at 465 even though I had said yesterday I’d wait for NFLX to hit its all-time high around 475. I need to stick to my rules!
Natural Gas (CME NG Sep14) rallied hard in the first half or so of yesterday’s session on the successful Monday retest of the July low. It has since given back some gains, and looks to continue to doing so into Thursday’s inventory release. With the weekly MACD green line still pointing fairly negatively, it will be interesting to see if the Monday/July low will hold on the inventory release.
The BUXL (Eurex GBX Sep14) is going to be a bit off my radar until it hits its all-time April 2012 high. I will then watch for its weekly MACD to stop rising and begin falling, and for its weekly RSI and Stochastics to begin rolling over.
Note the daily reshuffling of the charts below. As mentioned, they’re ordered by how favourable the risk:reward of the trade idea appears based on my analysis for each day.