Cotton (ICE CT Dec14) looks fairly uniformly aligned on its weekly, daily, 4hr and hourly Stochastics and MACD now. I am long 3 lots at an average of .6396, and have a sell limit on 1 lot at .645.
Corn (CME ZC Dec14) sold off yesterday on profittaking and currently sits within the 365-370 range I set as my long target entry yesterday. I am now long 1 lot at 370, and have a buy limit resting at 367. The daily and 4hr Stochastics are still pointing down, as are the 4hr MACD, so there’s a decent chance of accumulating longs slightly below 370. The hourly MACD and Stochastics is close to a bottom though, and I would expect the 4hr momentum indicators to follow in bottoming sometime today.
Arabica Coffee (ICE KC Dec14) closed more or less where it opened yesterday, with a bit of a pullback early in yesterday’s session, followed by a rally, then another pullback right before the close. As the daily MACD appears to suggest a bit more downside pressure in the next few sessions, I will look to continue buying on dips. Yesterday, I was hoping to buy in the 1.83-1.85 range, but have since raised my buy limits to 1.88, 1.89, and will adjust as necessary today. I had provided analysis on the September contract in previous weeks. Make sure you’re looking at the December contract now that the contract rollover is in progress.
Silver (CME SI Sep14) increasingly appears interesting on the daily, 4hr and hourly MACD and Stochastics. SI has fallen for 5 straight weeks, and the current weekly candle appears to want to halt the slide. Be aware that the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting which ends Saturday will cause signficant volatility in SI. Although I am long at 19.64, I will likely exit around 19.75 and continue trading in and out of SI on the long side for around .1 at a time, and will ensure I am flat before the weekend.
Wheat (CME ZW Sep14) has fallen back into my preferred earlier stated buying range of 535-540, sitting at 540 at the time of writing. The daily and 4h stochastics and MACD however appear to point lower. I’ll wait for ZW to be closer to 535 before I establish a lot or 2 long.
S&P500 (CME ES Sep14) and Nasdaq100 (NQ CME Sep14) are back to exhibiting near-term toppish conditions, with both hugging an upward channel resistance line, and showing 4hr and hourly MACD and Stochastics that appear to want to roll over. Because the weekly and daily MACD and Stochastics are pointing up, I’m going to remain on the sidelines with ES and NQ for now, to focus on the higher probability trades mentioned above.
Gold (CME GC Dec14) appears to have found decent near-term support at the 1300 level. Its 4hr and hourly MACD and Stochastics are both pointing higher. I will remain flat GC for now as its daily and weekly Stochastics and MACD are a bit mixed in their signals, and will likely not trade GC again until after Jackson Hole.
Netflix (NFLX) is just a session or so away from making an all-time high. I will hold off on shorting NFLX until it forms its all-time high and likely not until ES and NQ appear ready to rollover from their current rally.
Natural Gas (CME NG Sep14) retested its July low yesterday, and successfully bounced off this key support on the first attempt. It does appear however given the downward pointing daily and hourly Stochastics and MACD, and the steeply negatively sloping weekly MACD green line, that yesterday’s gains are about to reverse in the next few sessions. This breakdown should easily slice through the July low towards last November’s low. I will continue to sit out trading NG until it begins forming a sustainable bottom.
Although the BUXL (Eurex GBX Sep14) sold off slightly yesterday, it is expected to continue benefiting from safe haven inflows, and on bullish near-term technicals. The weekly MACD histogram continues rising, and the price is gravitating towards GBX’s all time high made in April 2012. I’ll likely remain flat GBX for the next few weeks.
Note the daily reshuffling of the charts below. As mentioned, they’re ordered by how favourable the risk:reward of the trade idea appears based on my analysis for each day.