Tradable Patterns

Trading liquid global markets

Gold (GC) Readying for Breakout of 1 Year Consolidation?

Gold (CME GC Dec14) had a strong last few days which has taken it out of a short-term downtrend. If you view the monthly GC chart on the main homepage slider image, posted in July, you can see that gold is my number 3 pick to go long for the second half of 2014. With GC being a levered product, I’m obviously not saying to just buy and hold GC from here. In the next few months, I’ll be profiling gold periodically every time it appears to be making interim bottoms or when it breaks out of a consolidation period as it has in the last few days. It is currently a bit overextended near-term, and I will look to enter longs around 1310-1315.

Corn (CME ZC Dec14) prepares for its rally after a healthy pullback coinciding with Wheat (CME ZW Sep14)’s. I am now long 3 lots of ZC at a 368.97 average. With ZW still looking bullish on the weekly and daily charts, I have ajusted my ZW buy limits to 560, 555 and 550 to avoid missing what I expect to be a strong finish to this week.

Cotton (ICE CT Dec14) continues exhibiting bottoming behavior and will probably not really rally until next week as it is slightly behind ZC and ZW in its bottoming phase. Either way, I am holding 2 lots long at .6423.

The S&P500 (ES CME Sep14) and Nasdaq100 (NQ CME Sep14) have completed their near-term pause from their major downtrend and are continuing falling today. I am cautiously optimistic for a slight bounce from current levels and will look to establish shorts on NQ in the 3860-3870 range. Their weekly and daily charts continue looking very bearish.

The VIX (CFE VIX Aug14) has completed its consolidation of recent gains and has resumed its strong up move. I will try to enter longs around 16.

Natural Gas (CME NG Sep14) experienced a healthy pullback yesterday post inventory figures and has now settled back to a price that makes for an ideal short-term long entry. The risk:reward has improved from last week as the current weekly candle now sits comfortably above last week’s Gravestone candle. I have buy limits resting at 3.87 and 3.86.

Towards the Wed close, Arabica Coffee (ICE KC Sep14) initially appeared close to breaking out to the upside out of its consolidation this past week. Within an hour of yesterday’s session though, it became apparent that the upside breakout attempt was premature, and that more downside and a retest of the 50% retrace (of the July rally) was in order. KC didn’t quite fall to the 50% Fib support, but certainly got close, and may still test it in today’s session as the daily and 4hr charts now look bearish near-term. I will be staying away from KC until it becomes clear the uptrend is resuming.

I was wrong to cite BUXL (Eurex GBX Sep14) as a short candidate so early, as the longer term chart (now posted below) clearly shows that it’s going to want to target its all time high made in April 2012. I am now flat GBX.

Silver (CME SI Sep14) is getting close to forming an intramonth bottom, given the psychologically important $20 level as well as the lag it often exhibits in following GC’s trend moves. I’ll likely begin posting charts on this next week once the risk:reward of a long setup further improves.

Netflix (NFLX) has had a strong rally these last few sessions and has room to rise for a few more. I’ll likely begin posting its charts again early next week once it tops out on its current bounce.

Note the daily reshuffling of the charts below. As mentioned, they’re ordered by how favourable the risk:reward of the trade idea appears based on my analysis for each day.

ZC Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

Corn (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

CT Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

Cotton (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

VIX Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

VIX (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

NQ Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

Nasdaq100 (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

ES Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

S&P500 (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

GC Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

Gold (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

NG Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

Natural Gas (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

ZW Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

Wheat (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

KC Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

Coffee (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

GBX Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

Buxl (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

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