Tradable Patterns

Trading liquid global markets

Arabica Coffee (KC) Finishing Consolidation; Rally about to Resume

Corn (CME ZC Dec14) followed in Wheat (CME ZW Sep14)’s footsteps yesterday, as predicted in the newsletter posts over the last week. As ZC’s bounce yesterday was weaker than ZW’s, and has pulled back a bit since, it now presents an ideal long entry point. I am currently flat as I have been actively trading ZC on the long side and will look to re-enter my long during the US session in the 365-370 range.

After ZW’s massive rally these last few sessions, although still very bullish in the next few weeks, ZW needs an orderly pullback today. My buy limits that were at 552, 550 and 548 never got triggered, and I may need to adjust them depending on how the hourly/30min/5min charts unfold closer to today’s US session.

Cotton (ICE CT Dec14)’s profile is looking very similar to ZC’s, having bounced yesterday then pulled back slightly. I am currently flat as I’ve traded in and out of CT and will hope to re-enter my long during the US session in the .635-.64 range.

Arabica Coffee (ICE KC Sep14) attempted to retest the 50% retrace (of the July rally) support as predicted over the last few days, but did not quite get there. It broke beneath the 38.2% retrace support, but bounced right back up, rallying steadily on a break above the symmetrical triangle resistance formed over the prior three or so trading days. Appearing a bit overextended on the 5min/30min timeframes, a more conservative long entry could be targeted for 1.91 or even 1.9. There’s a chance though that longer term traders will simply pile in near the open today after viewing the weekly/daily/4hr charts ahead of the open.

The S&P500 (ES CME Sep14) and Nasdaq100 (NQ CME Sep14) are going to be fairly choppy today, with downside bias. I’ll leave them alone until their current consolidation appears to have run its course, resuming the major downtrend that has now begun. Their weekly and daily charts are very bearish.

The VIX (CFE VIX Aug14) needs further consolidation before resuming its march higher. I continue favouring long entry around 15.

The BUXL (Eurex GBX Sep14)’s weekly candle no longer resembles a reversal signalling Doji, although it has now hit the July 2012 and April 2013 highs, where it is bound to meet strong resistance. The next target would be the May 2012 high.

Click here to view a longer term continuous chart of the BUXL’s front month contract.

Natural Gas (CME NG Sep14) is becoming a bit overextended in its oversold bounce leading into today’s inventory numbers, making new longs at this point risky holding into the figures release. As stated before, I’ll sit this one out as better risk:reward exists with the trade ideas shared above.

Silver (CME SI Sep14) is getting close to forming an intramonth bottom. I’ll likely begin posting charts on this once the risk:reward of a long setup further improves.

Netflix (NFLX) has rallied as predicted during the previous week’s posts. After its recent selloff, NFLX appears to have more upside. I’ll likely begin posting its charts again early next week once it tops out on its current bounce.

Note the daily reshuffling of the charts below. As mentioned, they’re ordered by how favourable the risk:reward of the trade idea appears based on my analysis for each day.

ZC Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

Corn (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

CT Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

Cotton (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

KC Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

Coffee (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

ZW Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

Wheat (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

VIX Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

VIX (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

NQ Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

Nasdaq100 (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

ES Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

S&P500 (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

GBX Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly/30min/5min

Buxl (Wkly/Dly/4hr/Hrly/30min/5min) Charts

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